CHO Youngtae

Director, Seoul National University Population Policy Research Center / Vice Chair, Population Association of Korea

CHO Youngtae
Times of the Remarks 2024. 11. 12. 10:00-10:55
Title Research Findings 1 - Strategies for Flourishing in a Shrinking Society: Conditions for Ensuring Attractiveness as a Country

The expression “population as a determined future” is now one familiar to many Koreans. Likewise, many in Korea have begun paying attention to how society is expected to change as a result of the decades-long trends of low birth rates and population aging. The biggest contributor to this widespread recognition of population as a key factor shaping our future is Seoul National University professor and population specialist CHO Youngtae. The publication of his bestseller The Determined Future (2016) helped to popularize demography, a field that was largely unknown to the general public. His subsequent works, Determined Future Market Opportunities, Vietnam’s Determined Future, and Population, Future, Coexistence went a step further, changing people’s perceptions of population as not just a concern of policymakers and government officials but a topic with implications for the future of markets as well as individuals. Recently, Professor Cho has had the opportunity to give various public lectures and talks, where he has emphasized that an understanding of people―in other words, population―as the key building block of societies and markets, and the ability to predict changes in population, can help us better understand both our present and our future.


[Session Title and Description]

New Paradigms for Industry in the 2030s: Understanding Reality and Expected Challenges Through a Population Lens

The core focus of a given country’s manufacturing industry often changes in line with advancements in scientific and technological capabilities. Korea is no exception. The focus of manufacturing has shifted from general manufacturing based on assembly and processing to hi-tech manufacturing based on AI and automation, while the “root industries” producing the materials, parts, and equipment indispensable to the global value chain record rapid growth. But in contrast to other countries also competing on the back of scientific and technology capabilities, Korea’s manufacturing sector faces a fundamental challenge: the rapid decline of the country’s working age population. According to related projections, by the mid-2030s, there will no longer be native Korean workers at general manufacturing sites, and the hi-tech manufacturing industry and “root industries” alike will face challenges securing their most critical talent, namely in R&D. This session will look at the demographic challenges that Korea’s manufacturing sector will face in the 2030s and also seek solutions from a demographic perspective.